I have paid serious attention to elections since the late 1980s. Different elections throw up different results for different reasons.
In this election, to me, there is an undercurrent not dissimilar to what Paul Henderson discovered in 2012 when the ALP was thrown from Government.
Henderson confided in many, that he didn’t see the result, where the CLP won 16 seats, coming.
There are those within the ALP and the CLP today who will argue, on a seat-by-seat basis, my predictions will be out. And they may be right, but there is nothing worse than applying uniform thought to seats in an electoral environment of high crime and anti-social behaviour which has dominated the landscape for months and months (and months). Usually issues like crime don’t continue on like this has.
Every election represents the opportunity to send a message, and I think there is going to be a message sent this time.
Despite the chatter around Independents and Greens, they need to achieve 33 per cent primary to gain any chance of winning. That’s a tough ask when you consider historically there has only ever been two genuine Independents – Gerry Wood (Nelson – former Litchfield Mayor) and Mark Guyula (Mulka) who have not originally been elected as part of a major party, before becoming Independent.
To me the most interesting seats on the night will be:
Drysdale – the Chief’s seat;
Johnston – Joel Bowden’s seat;
Sanderson – Kate Worden’s seat and
Wanguri – the vacant seat held by the ALP.
The table below allocates the seats. My prediction is 12 seats to the CLP, and if they win just one of the seats, I’ve identified as “In Play”, then they will govern in their own right.
The path to victory for the ALP is actually harder than many acknowledge. You can only run on your record in government - statistically and anecdotally – and they’ve had challenges.
Summary:
Notional placement with seats in dispute. I believe that CLP will finish on 14 seats.
| ALP | CLP | Green | Independent | In Play |
| Arafura | Barkly | Araluen | Blain (CLP win) | |
| Arnhem | Braitling | Mulka | Drysdale (Likely ALP hold) | |
| Casuarina | Brennan | Fannie Bay (Likely ALP hold) | ||
| Gwoja | Daly (CLP gain) | Johnston (Likely Ind win) | ||
| Nightcliff | Fong Lim (CLP gain) | Sanderson (Likely ALP hold) | ||
| Goyder (CLP gain) | Wanguri (Likely ALP hold) | |||
| Karama (CLP gain) | ||||
| Katherine | ||||
| Namatjira | ||||
| Nelson | ||||
| Port Darwin (CLP gain) | ||||
| Spillett | ||||
| 5 | 12 | 2 | 6 |
- Arafura
Member: Manuel Brown (ALP)
Margin: 38.4%
Comments:
Although the CLP has held Arafura before, most recently between 2012 and 2016, the reality is it is an unknown. On that basis I have given it to the ALP.
Prediction: ALP hold
- Araluen
Member: Robyn Lambley
Party: Independent
Margin: 1.6%
Comments:
Robyn Lambley has held the seat if Araluen since 2010 when she was elected as a member of the CLP. She left the party during the turmoil of Mills/Giles era to sit as an Independent before having a brief relationship with Territory Alliance for the 2020 campaign. Her margin probably reflects the Territory Alliance relationship more than her work as a local member. She has been outspoken on a lot of issues championing Alice Springs. I suspect she will increase her margin back above 5 per cent.
Prediction: Independent hold
- Arnhem
Member: Selena Uibo
Party: Labor
Margin: 3.2%
Comments:
This seat may prove to be a more interesting seat than many initially thought. You can never know for sure what the “bush vote” will be however the CLP have managed to snag Ian Mongunu Gumbula who ran as an independent last time and polled second highest on primaries in a campaign where Covid was the big scare back that area back then. It is a two-horse race so we will see what happens.
Prediction: Labor hold but do not be shocked if the CLP win it.
- Barkly
Member: Steve Edgington
Party: Country Liberal
Margin: 0.2% (Seven votes was the difference in 2020)
Comments:
Incumbency is a major benefit to any elected member who actually works during their term. Steve Edgington has done the work if his prolific social media is anything to go by. The ALP has used terms like “hope” when it comes to the vote in the bush areas of the electorate. But it was the same “hope” that ended in misery back in 2012 when the bush vote collapsed.
Prediction: CLP hold with an increased majority (anything above seven votes is an increase.)
- Blain
Member: Mark Turner
Party: Independent (initially Labor until he got the boot – long story – but it did involve a hooker, cocaine, and a whole heap of public curiosity)
Margin: 0.4% (13 votes at the end of counting)
Comments:
At the end of the counting in 2020, there was just 13 votes to the current elected member and a trail of blood for the then sitting member who had been a Chief Minister at one point, Terry Mills, and the bookies who paid out twice. Once for the incumbent Mark Turner and once for the CLP candidate Matthew Kerle. Two things will impact this seat. No Terry Mills who had a following, and an anti-ALP sentiment. Will Mills voters swing behind Turner, or will they sense a change of government and want someone in it? Kerle came agonisingly close and with a swing against the government he wins.
Prediction: CLP win
- Braitling
Member: Joshua Burgoyne
Party: Country Liberal
Margin: 2.6%
Comments:
Josh Burgoyne beat Cabinet Minister Dale Wakefield when he won Braitling in 2020. Dake Wakefield beat the then Chief Minister Adam Giles (CLP) when she won in 2016. In 2020 there were seven candidates in the field. This time just three. One from the CLP, one from the ALP and one from the NT Greens. If you have been living under a rock, then crime has been the issue of all issues and Alice Springs is the epicentre. There is a strong environment movement in Alice Springs however crime is such a major issue and Burgoyne has been a consistent performer then the alternatives are for another election when the residents of Alice are not under siege. Until then it is Burgoyne’s to lose.
Prediction: CLP win with increased majority.
- Brennan
Member: Marie-Clare Boothby
Party: Country Liberal
Margin: 2.4%
Comments:
Marie-Clare Boothby has incumbency and a high profile. It says a lot about an Opposition sitting member when your opponent’s take constant potshots at you. The ALP, despite their best efforts, haven’t been able to do any lasting damage. Marie-Clare is a hardworking local member by any standards. Voters notice that.
Prediction: CLP win with increased majority.
- Casuarina
Member: Lauren Moss
Party: Labor
Margin: 34%
Comments:
Never underestimate a substandard political opponent to elevate your position. Lauren Moss hasn’t set the world alight by many standards, but she hasn’t been tested by any opponents either. In a quirk there is a Greek speaking Indian running for the CLP in an electorate with a reasonable Greek constituency. The margin is so large dislodging Lauren Moss will be a monumental task. If there is a swing against the government in the Northern Suburbs then Moss will feel it but not enough to lose her seat.
Prediction: ALP win with a reduced majority.
- Daly
Member: Dheran Young
Party: Labor
Margin: 12.2%
Comments:
Don’t be deceived by the margin. The current ALP member won the seat in a by-election in 2021. In that by-election there were four candidates, and 750 votes were shared between two independent candidates. This time around there is only two candidates – the sitting ALP member and Kris Civitarese who ran in the by-election for the CLP. Those 750 votes will go somewhere and based on the voting centres then Civitarese is the likely recipient. That is without factoring in any anti-government swing that may exist.
Prediction: CLP win.
- Drysdale
Member: Eva Lawler (Chief Minister)
Party: Labor
Margin: 15.8%
Comments:
If 600 voters decide they don’t like Chief Minister Eva Lawler on Saturday then her seat hangs in the balance. In 2020 there were five candidates (non-major) that absorbed 1100 first preference votes. This time around there are just three candidates in total including the incumbent Lawler. The others are Cindy Mebbingarri Roberts (Independent) and Clinton Howe (CLP). Clearly Palmerston is seen as a battle ground which means the Chief Minister’s own seat is in play. Given Ms Lawler is the Chief Minister the thought of her losing her own seat would seem unthinkable. But we’ve seen them turn on Leaders – Adam Giles, even John Howard -and while Ms Lawler does not fall into that category the epidemic of crime in the Palmerston and the language her predecessors and she herself has used in discussing it might be like fingernails down a blackboard to Drysdale voters.
Prediction: In play – too close to call – likely ALP hold.
- Fannie Bay
Member: Brent Potter
Party: Labor
Margin: 5.2%
Comments:
The voters of Fannie Bay wanted to send a message the government in the 2022 by-election. The eventual local member and now Police Minister Brent Potter lost the primary vote but through a Greens preference deal got across the line. This has given the Greens a spring (see what I did there) in their step and Suki Dorras-Walker who did well in a local government election without winning is everywhere. The voters of Fannie Bay like to see themselves as the informed and so far, they have elected three members who would go on to be Chief Minister. The problem with Potter and that scenario is he emits that sort of feel. Listen to any interview he does. He cuts off the questioner because he already knows the answer. The CLP candidate Laurie Zio may well win the first preference again but where does she get her preferences from? The Greens will need to get 33 per cent of the primary vote to win the seat and that will be through ALP preferences. Given the by-election result and despite Potter being a solid Minister – he’s also the Police Minister – at a time of obscene levels of crime and the saving grace of Green preferences. Fannie Bay is in play because there is an undercurrent anti-government feel.
Prediction: In play – too close to call – likely ALP hold.
- Fong Lim
Member: Mark Monaghan
Party: Labor
Margin: 5.2%
Comments:
In 2020, the sitting ALP member Mark Monoghan who is now a Cabinet Minister, won the seat by 219 votes against a CLP candidate who wasn’t readily known in the electorate. In normal circumstances, with the benefit of incumbency, he should win and increase his majority. But repeatedly I am hearing out of voters in the seat they simply never see him, so it begs the question has he done enough? This time around the Greens Simon Niblock and Amye Un both of local government fame (you can argue Amye Un is more famous than some when it comes to the Darwin City Council) will attract votes but not the 33 per cent they require. Fong Lim will fall if there is an anti-government swing combined with his questionable on the ground presence.
Prediction: CLP gain.
- Goyder (Vacant)
Member: Kezia Purick
Party: Independent
Margin: 13.6%
Comments:
Kezia Purick after a lifetime in politics in many different ways is retiring. She has personally backed Belinda Kolstad however to take over from her. Kolstad had a crack at CLP pre-selection but was beaten by Andrew Mackey who among other things serves on the Litchfield Council. Based purely on her Katie Woolf meet the candidate section I was underwhelmed by Kolstad. I think this swat goes back to the CLP.
Prediction: CLP gain.
- Gwoja
Member: Chansey Paech
Party: Labor
Margin: 32.4% (Labor hold)
Comments:
This will be an ALP hold hands down. But if the ALP lose government the big question is what role does Paech take in Opposition?
Prediction: ALP win.
- Johnston
Member: Joel Bowden
Party: Labor
Margin: 33%
Comments:
This is going to be the seat of the election to watch. Joel Bowden is a Minister but only joined the Parliament in 2020. There was a cry of “he was destined for it.” His problem is not just the underlying anti-government sentiment, or the fact that there were three deadly crimes including the stabbing of Declan Laverty and the bashing of an international student to death in his electorate but there is a belief he is unappealing to female voters and that has become louder since the leading female candidate, an Independent Justine Davis arrived on the scene. With the inclusion of the Green candidate in the heavily Green tinged seat and the Green leaning Davis, Bowden’s primary vote will take a hit and that will only be made worse as the rusted on 900 CLP voters in Johnston send their preferences away from the ALP, most likely to the Independent.
Prediction: In play – too close to call – likely Independent.
16. Karama
Member: Ngaree Ah Kit
Party: Labor
Margin: 19.6%
Comments:
The redistribution in this seat coupled with the crime and anti-social behaviour makes this seat a lightning rod for every ounce of anxiety in the Territory that isn’t Alice Springs. Ngaree Ah Kit won this seat by 819 votes in 2020 but since then 400 voters out Knuckey’s Lagoon have come into the electorate – 90 per cent of which vote conservative. That alone with the any issue-based anti-government swing will cause problems. The CLP have chosen Brian O’Gallagher for a second go. O’Gallagher is an Alderman on the Darwin City Council. There is a strong independent whose preferences could prove crucial but ther eis no guarantee those who vote for Justine Glover will send their preferences to Labor.
Prediction: CLP gain.
17. Katherine
Member: Jo Hersey
Party: Country Liberal
Margin: 4.6%
Comments:
There were three good candidates at the 2020 election who all polled over 1000 votes each. Jo Hersey (CLP) won the battle for what was a vacant seat. In this election she now has the benefit of incumbency. Katherine has been gripped by its own crime crisis and Hersey has been busy bringing that to the forefront.
Prediction: CLP hold
18. Mulka
Member: Yingiya Mark Guyula
Party: Independent
Margin: 2.2% (Independent hold)
Comments:
The CLP has decided to run a candidate in this while the ALP has not. In 2020 Yingiya Mark Guyula beat the ALP candidate Lynne Walker by more than 400 votes. It will be similar traffic this time round as well.
Prediction: Independent hold.
19. Namatjira
Member: Bill Yan
Party: Country Liberal
Margin: 0.6% (22 votes)
Comments:
On paper this should be a close contest. The number of candidates has been halved from six in 2020 down to three, with the ALP re-running Sheralee Taylor who lost by 22 votes last time. Bill Yan gives the CLP the benefit of incumbency and despite Blair McFarland and his Australia Day title for the Greens the biggest issue is where do the 809 voters who supported the current Mayor of Alice Springs Mat Pateron in 2020 park their vote. For this reason and the reason of crime and anti-social behaviour in the Red Centre then this will be a CLP retain.
Prediction: CLP hold with an increased majority.
20. Nelson
Member: Gerard Maley
Party: Country Liberal
Margin: 16.6%
Comments:
Gerard Maley won the seat made vacant by retiring Independent Gerry Wood comfortably in 2020. Up until the death knell for nominations there was only Maley, who has done an outstanding job as Deputy Leader. Beverley Ratahi is running again as an Independent and has been a constant critic of Maley. However, I cannot see Maley not retaining the seat comfortably.
Prediction: CLP hold with an increased majority.
21. Nightcliff
Member: Natasha Fyles
Party: Labor
Margin: Lots (2100 votes in 2020)
Comments:
The margin that Natasha Fyles holds the seat of Nightcliff will be reduced in this election but the likelihood of her losing the seat is not high. If Natasha was still the Chief Minister now then I would not be so confident but that isn’t the case.
Prediction: ALP hold with a reduced majority
22. Port Darwin (Vacant)
Member: Paul Kirby
Party: Labor
Margin: 4.2%
Comments:
The sitting ALP member Paul Kirby is retiring so the seat becomes vacant. The ALP has held this seat a few times despite it being perceived as demographically CLP. This time around the CLP is in the box seat with Robyn Cahill one of a couple of CLP candidates with substantial executive professional experience. The ALP candidate Brian Manning comes across as a nice enough person but he has the baggage of an ALP Government which has not done enough in the anti-social and crime behaviour space. A trip to the shops for Port Darwin voters can be more traumatic than the monthly mortgage following a rate rise.
Prediction: CLP gain.
23. Sanderson
Member: Kate Worden
Party: Labor
Margin: 11.9% (Labor hold)
Comments:
This is a two-horse person race in Sanderson so we will know the result relatively quickly. It is also one of the seats where an upset won’t surprise some. In 2020, Worden won comfortably with the vote split between the CLP and the now defunct-Territory Alliance helping her cause. The CLP candidate is Jinson Charls who some complain is difficult to understand, but then they quickly add – “so has Kon Vatskalis for his entire political career.” Worden is the most aggressive Minister in the pack and it has bitten her during this campaign. The Four Corners story this week and then the claim around the license suspension in Alice Springs that resulted in the police issuing a formal apology for getting it wrong aren’t helpful. Will it impact her personal vote – probably not. What may impact her vote is that Minister Worden was the Police Minister when crime was at its worst.
Prediction: Likely ALP hold BUT do not be shocked if there is an upset loss.
24. Spillett
Member: Lia Finocchiaro
Party: Country Liberal
Margin: Lots
Comments:
The Leader of the Opposition chasing the top job as Chief Minister won her seat in 2020 by polling all 2 votes to her ALP opponent’s one. The only interest will be if there is a swing to or away from the incumbent. One of the things Ms Finocchiaro did during the tumultuous CLP period of 2012-2016 was consolidate her electorate by door knocking and going to the opening of an envelope. As a result, she was one of two CLP members left.
Prediction: CLP hold with an increased majority.
25. Wanguri (Vacant)
Member: Nicole Manison
Party: Labor
Margin: 34.6%
Comments:
One of the three most interesting seats this election. This was the ALP’s safest seat in the NT, but when Nicole Manison was overlooked for the Chief Minister role she decided to retire. So, there is no local member incumbency. The ALP has held the seat for the majority of its time, and it has done so with pro-development candidates like Nicole Manison and Paul Henderson. It is why the emergence and impact of anti-gas campaigner Graeme Sawyer and the Green this election may not be the game changer people believe. The CLP has more than 1200 rusted on voters in the seat. That’s how many voted for the CLP candidate in 2020. It was still only a third of the votes Manison got. The ALP vote will dilute, and its choice of Shlok Sharma was predictable given his union connections. The ALP have been sandbagging the seat with personal endorsements from the ALP shiniest. This opens the door for a CLP steal with Oly Carlson. The stars will need to align for that to occur but if there is a swing against the government then anything can happen.
Prediction: Likely ALP hold, but too close to call, a CLP win won’t shock.
